New Signs of an Economic Recession in 2017
Next year, we will see a recession.
I’m calling it.
Why? Well … there are just too many events unfolding this year that will set the stage for a recession, including a corporate earnings recession, a growth-stunting Brexit vote and a U.S. presidential election unlike any we have ever experienced.
Any one of these events could be the direct catalyst for next year’s recession, or it could be one of the many other reasons not listed.
While I can’t predict the exact catalyst for the event, I do know that I’m not the only one expecting the worst.
In fact, according to a recent report, companies are preparing for a recession as well … and you should be doing the same.
In the latest durable goods advance estimate for June, orders tumbled 4% versus expectations of a 1.7% decline. Durable goods orders represent orders for products that last typically for at least three years, like appliances, office equipment, motor vehicles and turbines.
The Sovereign Investor
Prospect of US rate rise recedes as key Fed voter urges caution
Yet Dudley was coy on just how many rate increases he envisioned, saying only that he expected the central bank to move at least more aggressively than current futures-market predictions for only one rate increase by the end of 2017.
While the world’s most influential central bank struck some confident tones in a policy statement last week, more recent data showing the US economy has expanded at an annual rate of roughly 1% so far this year emboldened those who thought the Fed would not tighten monetary policy any time soon.
Inefficiencies in new economic infrastructure aren’t exactly new. Because the state doesn’t centrally plan and roll out new technologies in a completely rational fashion—matching demand, distribution, and supply—wrinkles and bubbles develop. Incentives may be available for one component of the technology but not for others. And so overinvestment in one stage of the process coincides with underinvestment in another stage. Which is why we have bubbles. The earliest telegraph lines from Boston to New York City stopped at the Hudson River—and messages had to be carried across the Hudson on a boat. In the 1990s, information would travel at rapid speeds across the country on fast cables but slow down in the last mile. (I wrote a book about this in 2007.)
In June, VW Group agreed to a $15 billion settlement with the Department of Justice. The agreement mandates that the automaker buy cars back from their owners at the price their vehicles were worth before VW Group’s cheating scandal came to light. Owners and lessees of affected diesels will also receive $5,100 to $10,000, depending on the vehicle (a graduated table of settlement payments can be found here). If CARB approves a fix for the affected diesels, owners could also opt to pass up the buyback and have their car fixed for free. That would save VW Group money out of the $10 billion set aside for buybacks.
Next year, we will see a recession.
I’m calling it.
Why? Well … there are just too many events unfolding this year that will set the stage for a recession, including a corporate earnings recession, a growth-stunting Brexit vote and a U.S. presidential election unlike any we have ever experienced.
Any one of these events could be the direct catalyst for next year’s recession, or it could be one of the many other reasons not listed.
While I can’t predict the exact catalyst for the event, I do know that I’m not the only one expecting the worst.
In fact, according to a recent report, companies are preparing for a recession as well … and you should be doing the same.
In the latest durable goods advance estimate for June, orders tumbled 4% versus expectations of a 1.7% decline. Durable goods orders represent orders for products that last typically for at least three years, like appliances, office equipment, motor vehicles and turbines.
The Sovereign InvestorProspect of US rate rise recedes as key Fed voter urges caution
Inefficiencies in new economic infrastructure aren’t exactly new. Because the state doesn’t centrally plan and roll out new technologies in a completely rational fashion—matching demand, distribution, and supply—wrinkles and bubbles develop. Incentives may be available for one component of the technology but not for others. And so overinvestment in one stage of the process coincides with underinvestment in another stage. Which is why we have bubbles. The earliest telegraph lines from Boston to New York City stopped at the Hudson River—and messages had to be carried across the Hudson on a boat. In the 1990s, information would travel at rapid speeds across the country on fast cables but slow down in the last mile. (I wrote a book about this in 2007.)
In June, VW Group agreed to a $15 billion settlement with the Department of Justice. The agreement mandates that the automaker buy cars back from their owners at the price their vehicles were worth before VW Group’s cheating scandal came to light. Owners and lessees of affected diesels will also receive $5,100 to $10,000, depending on the vehicle (a graduated table of settlement payments can be found here). If CARB approves a fix for the affected diesels, owners could also opt to pass up the buyback and have their car fixed for free. That would save VW Group money out of the $10 billion set aside for buybacks.
Tesla posts $293M Q2 loss, up 59% from Q2 2015
Tesla reported a $293-million GAAP net loss for Q2, a 59% increase from the $184-million net loss for Q2 2015. This marks Tesla’s 13 th consecutive quarterly loss. However, Tesla also completed a $1.7-billion equity raise to end the quarter with $3.25 billion in cash. In Q2, Tesla delivered 14,402 new vehicles consisting of 9,764 Model S and 4,638 Model X. Tesla said that production and demand are on track to support deliveries of approximately 50,000 new Model S and Model X vehicles during the second half of 2016. Tesla said that it delivered fewer cars in Q2 than originally planned as a result of a steep production ramp, resulting in almost […]
