Beware Liquidity Drying Up Global Bond Markets

Liquidity Mirage Causes Volatility

 in government bonds

At the moment, volatility in the government bond market continues to be a huge theme in the market and one that investors need to consider and address.  Whatever the initial causes of the adjustment in relative and absolute yield curves and there are plenty of potential culprits – Federal Reserve rate expectations, European Central Bank quantitative easing, inflation forecasts etc. – the subsequent severe volatility has been without doubt exacerbated by the lack of liquidity.

What is particularly worrying is that this lack of liquidity is occurring in global government bond markets, which are deemed to be the most-liquid fixed-income sectors.  To highlight this issue, Bloomberg reported that on ICAP's BrokerTec platform's (an electronic trading system for FI markets) April volumes fell 14 per cent from a year ago and were the lowest in six years. Read More.

INVESTORS' INSIGHTS  - "Today's Edge" 

Sooner or later the bond market will run out of bigger fools as inflation is much higher than reported by governments while investors are losing principal with negative real returns. In essence we are seeing a global debasement of all currencies under present policies.

When the bonds crash they will bring down the markets too. Time has come to unload those highflyers that have no earning because they can drop like a stone from dollars to pennies, all in the blink of young girl's eyes.

International Offices
May 19, 2015